As of Today Aug, 2nd, 2007…

The Yankees have a 56.9% chance of making the playoffs. The Indians have a 45.4% chance and the Ms have a 25.9% of making it.  Thank you coolstandings.

If you dont understand coolstandings, here is how it works:

The Bill James Pythagorean theorem states that a baseball team’s winning percentage can be estimated using the following formula:

PCT = (RS^2)/(RS^2 + RA^2)

where RS is runs scored, and RA is runs against. This formula works because baseball scores roughly follow a Rayleigh distribution. Over time, the formula has been tweaked using empirical evidence (i.e. actual game scores). For instance, instead of using an exponent value of 2, a value of 1.83 is often used.

To determine the chance team A has of beating team B, estimates the expected number of runs that team A will score against team B, and the expected number of runs that team B will score against team A. These numbers are estimated using team statistics (such as RS and RA), and plugged into a modified version of the Pythagorean theorem. With these results, we simulate the rest of the season, using each team’s remaining schedule, and determine how many times each team wins its division or the wild card. If a team wins the division 100,000 times out of a million, then that team is given a 10% chance of winning the division.


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