underachievers of the year

This may be the only site online about the Cubs and Yankees, but we did pick two of the most underachieving teams in baseball by far this season. The two most underachieving based on potential to be playoff contenders… Thats not just the frustration talking either, as evidenced by these adjusted standings (as of yesterday) courtesy of Baseball Prospectus.

Team W L RS RA W1 L1 EqR EqRA W2 L2 AEqR AEqRA W3 L3 D1 D2 D3
Yanks 36 35 391 323 41.9 21.3 395 342 40.3 30.6 412 350 41.1 29.9 -5.9 -4.3 -5.1
Cubbies 33 39 325 304 38.2 33.8 338 293 40.8 31.2 323 288 39.9 32.1 -5.2 -7.8 -6.9

The stats in white are actual wins and losses, as well as actual runs scored and runs allowed to this point in the season. The red numbers represent what our beloved Cubs and Yankees records should be purely based on RS and RA. (The D values at the far right are the differentials between actual records and adjusted records for each category).

The green numbers are RS and RA taking the teams hitters equivalent batting averages (EqA) teams into account. I dont really claim to understand EqA completely but lets just give it the benefit of the doubt for now thats its a satisfactory measure of a hitters production at the plate and, thus, his ability to produce runs.

The blue values are RA and RA considering EqA’s as well as the supposed quality of opposing pitching. In theory, the blue values give us the best idea of how our teams should be performing. Of course, we live in the real world and this 162 game season is not the result of a computer simulation based on past performance. However, if the season were 1,000,000,000 games long and played by electrons instead of humans, I think its safe to say the Cubs would edge out the Brewers in the NL Central and make it to the playoffs this season. If only…


One response

  1. follow up to this: if there is one thing to be grateful for this season is that i would much rather watch my team fail to score runs and be as bad/good as they are as opposed to have our pitchers get nailed every fucking game but we win the occasional game because our offense is good. in conclusion, good pitching is what baseball is all about.

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